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M. Stat. – 507
Advanced Demography
Full marks – 75
(Examination 60, Tutorial/Terminal 11.25, and Attendance 3.75)
Number of Lectures – Minimum 45
(Duration of Examination: 4 Hours)

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Aim of the Course:
Firstly, observed the values of the demographic parameters using indirect techniques and secondly, take necessary future plan of action on the basis of the findings for the nation of country.
Objectives of the Course:
 
to understand the concepts of single, double and multiple decrement life tables.
  
to observed eliminating effect of specific disease on expectation of life.
  
to estimate different parameters of vital events using indirect techniques in absence of direct information.
 
to understand the concept of population growth models and their graduation.
  
to understand the application of projection matrix for fertility and mortality.
  
to understand the concept of fecundability, its distribution and effect the use of contraceptives.
Learning Outcome of Course: 
The fields of application include public health, reproductive health, population policy, such as fertility, mortality, migration etc.

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Course Contents
Life table analysis: General idea, ordinary life table. Properties and interrelationships. Probability distributions of life table functions. Methods of construction of double and multiple decrement tables and increment decrement life tables. Joint life functions, Multi‑life functions. Last survivor status. General Multi‑life status.
Demographic estimation: Concept and applicability of the indirect techniques involve in the estimation of infant, child, adult and maternal mortality. Estimates of fertility. Estimation of migration. Dual record system. Chandra-Sekar and Deming Method. Coal’s indices, Coale’s nuptiality model. Davis-Blake framework of intermediate variables. Proximate determinants of fertility.
Stable population theory and models: Concept of stationary, stable and quasi-stable population. Natural growth rate and intrinsic growth rate, Lotka’s Intregal Equation, Net maternity function. Graduation of NMF by Normal, Wicksell and Hadwiger curve. Effects of change of birth and death rates on stable population. Study of some growth models – Exponential, Malthusian, Logistic and Quasi-stable models.
Population projection: Development of Leslie projection matrix. Properties of Leslie matrix. Forward and backward operation of population projection. Stable vector, dominant root. Frejka’s component method for population projection. Projection of fertility and mortality.
Micro demography: Reproductivity, fecundity, fecundability and sterility. Effective fecundability. Residual fecundability. Estimation of fecundability. Pearl index. Effectiveness and efficiency of FP methods.

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Main Books:
1)
Pollard, J.H. (1980): Mathematical models for the growth of human populations.
2)
Johnson RCE & Johnson (1980): Survival Models and Data Analysis, Wiley NL & Sons, N. Y.
3)
Keyfitz, N. (1977): Applied Mathematical Demography, Wiley & Sons.
Books Recommended:
4)
Biswas, S. (1988): Stochastic Processes in Demography and Applications. Wiley Eastern Ltd., India
5)
Islam, N. (1996): Levels and Correlates of Marriage and Fertility in Bangladesh. Unpublished Ph.D desperation, R.U.
6)
Shryock, H. J. S. Siegel and Associates (1976): The Methods and Materials of Demography; Cond., ed., New York, Academic Press.
7)
UNFPA (1993): Population Research Methodology Vols. 1-8. Chicago, Illinois, and other UNFPA publications.
8)
UNO (1983): Indirect Technique Demographic Estimation, Population Studies No. 81.